Nic Doggett provides an overview of the key things to note on day three of Newmarket’s July Festival.
Three points of interest
More Ballydoyle success in July Cup?
The July Cup pivots around the very exciting young sprinter Inisherin, who comes into Saturday’s race on the back of his own Group 1 win in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot last month.
A potential improver (Timeform ‘small p’ – click here to learn more) who is 3lb clear on weight-adjusted-ratings, this ‘Horse In Focus’ ticks more Timeform boxes than almost every other horse over the weekend and will surely be hard to beat.
But what about the Ballydoyle challenge?
After all, the powerful operation proved dominant in the big sprint on day 1 of the July Festival thanks to Little Big Bear’s little brother Whistlejacket who was backed as if defeat was out of the question (spoiler alert – it was – click here to watch the replay) in the July Stakes.
Aidan O’Brien saddled three-year-old sprinters to win the 2018 and 2019 renewals of the July Cup, while the great Starspangledbanner was a year older when taking the 2010 running.
But since then things haven’t really gone to plan.
Southern Hills was an unfancied 28/1 chance when last in 2020, and after saddling no runner a year later, Cadamosto – who Ryan Moore didn’t even bother to ride – was second-last in the 2022 renewal at 33/1.
And last year?
The aforementioned Little Big Bear – despite missing some work in the build up – was sent off the 5/2 joint-favourite but finished last, already in trouble when his chance was ended by being badly hampered.
O’Brien relies on Irish 2000 Guineas third River Tiber this year, another youngster who reverts to sprinting, but having chased home Vandeek on two occasions last season he will need to take a big step forward if he’s to add to the Ballydoyle roster of winners and spoil the Inisherin party.
Superlative pointers
The rollcall of Superlative Stakes winners is an impressive one, with Native Trail (2021) and City of Troy (2023) building on a decades-long legacy that includes a 2004 win for Dubawi.
Fast-forward 20 years and it’s somewhat apt that a homebred son of Dubawi, one of the great sires in modern horse racing, carries the torch into this year’s renewal.
Ancient Truth was one of several impressive debut winners for the Charlie Appleby yard that weekend when winning on the Rowley Mile in May, with this race immediately nominated as a medium-term target.
With that form working out well, he then followed up in a similar event when stepped up in trip on the July Course a month later.
That race is yet to be really tested, but the impression he made was indelible, and it’s not a stretch to see him scoring here before heading to the National Stakes (for which he has an entry) in September as stablemate Native Trail did a couple of years ago.
Native Trail won at the Curragh, went on to land the Dewhurst a month later, before returning as a three-year-old for Irish 2000 Guineas success. Connections will be hoping that Ancient Truth can follow a similar path, but he is far from crowned just yet.
Coventry Stakes third Columnist (read what Sporting Life columnist Richard Fahey’s thinks to his chance here) actually has the edge on form in Saturday’s race, according to Timeform ratings, though it’s no surprise to note that seven of the nine Superlative runners retain a ‘small p’ and are open to all sorts of improvement.
That includes The Parthenon – a brother to Buttons – who actually made his debut in a Curragh Group 3 before overcoming a slow start when winning at Gowran Park last month, and is named after the Greek temple built as a shrine to the goddess Athena.
Given its history as one of the leading juvenile races of the season, whoever wins the Superlative will surely be put up on their own pedestal by the end of the day.
Godolphin benefit once more?
It may not be the most high-profile race on Saturday, but the opening maiden at Newmarket has been dominated by Charlie Appleby. He has saddled the winner in four of the last seven seasons, while Godolphin also took home the prize in 2014 with Winters Moon obliging for Saeed bin Suroor.
With the winners priced at 5/2, 3/1, 5/2f, 2/1, 5/4f it’s not going to pay for that last-minute trip to Berlin, but there is likely to be plenty of hype around this year’s Appleby runner Desert Flower.
The second foal of Promising Run who was a winner on both Newmarket courses over seven furlongs as a two-year-old, Desert Flower’s sibling Aablan was a winning favourite over C&D on debut and then followed up in the Solario Stakes at Sandown.
“Charlie likes this race as we have a few two-year-olds that need this trip,” said Alex Merriam, assistant trainer, following Aablan’s debut success.
Though this fillies’ race isn’t the exact same contest, similar sentiments apply. With the yard operating at a 30% strike-rate this season (despite a slight dip in RTF% in May), the advice is to watch out for a big performance in the opener.
Timeform Tip of the Day
Wonder Kid – 17:10 Newmarket
Flag: Horse In Focus
This is always a competitive handicap, and there are plenty in with a squeak once more, but the market has often got things right (no winner priced at more than 11/1 in 13 years, and only two bigger than 6/1 in the same period) and preference is for Wonder Kid.
He’s not necessarily bred to be at home over this trip, but the Hugo Palmer-trained three-year-old clearly has stamina as a strongpoint and made it 2-2 in handicaps when winning over C&D just over three weeks ago.
With better still to come having started life in handicaps on a lowly mark, he’s one to keep onside despite a further 8lb rise in the weights.
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