We spoke to Daniel Birkinshaw from the Sky Bet trading team to get his thoughts on Royal Ascot and which horses the bookies are fearing this year.
Who is your banker of the meeting?
Kyprios made hard enough work of it at long odds on last time but it has been about one day only for connections this season and whatever the weather he’ll take some stopping next week. At a shade of odds on across the board that’s a bit of a copout answer, though. Double him up with Notable Speech, who looked different class in the 2000 Guineas and with the weather set fair enough at the start of next week should have no concerns over the surface. The double should pay you somewhere in the region of 3/1 and that looks a good starting point.
Which short-price favourite do you think looks vulnerable?
From a price perspective, Auguste Rodin at 7/4 looks a poor enough one with Inspiral (4/1) a likely runner now. She’ll surely be much closer to him in the betting come the time of the race and I’d be in her camp at this trip on quick ground (which is likely on Wednesday).
Who could you see going well at a big price in a Group race?
I’m very keen to be with Believing in the King Charles III Stakes at around 10/1. She looks a different prospect now she’s left her stalls issues behind her and whilst the form of the Achilles Stakes doesn’t look anything special, nor does the time of the race, she looked to have plenty left and was eased in the finish. That should leave her spot on for this assignment and George Boughey is plenty bullish about her, holding the view there is a strong chance she takes in both Group 1 sprints should all go to plan next week.
Which two-year-olds are you keen on?
Andesite is a horse that shouldn’t be overlooked in the Coventry Stakes. He pulled clear with another entry for the Coventry, Yah Mo Be There and he showed a great attitude to win that day. The stiffer track will definitely suit and he looks a serious player granted some luck with a decent draw. You would be better off waiting for declarations, however, as these races will be betting to tighter margins and you will be in the know with regards to draw, going etc. on the day.
Who is your biggest fancy in the handicaps?
Rowayeh (16/1) in the Kensington Place Handicap on Wednesday looks a very good bet. She’s a filly that was way too keen to fulfil her potential last season and was drawn away from where the race unfolded on reappearance this campaign. She gets 1lb back for that and this mile on the round course should be right up her street provided that she gets a sound draw.
I’ll throw in another Shadwell horse, Mukaafah (14/1) in the Palace Of Holyrood House handicap next Friday. He travelled like a dream at Doncaster after a short break a month back and won with any amount in hand. Now 8lbs higher, there should be no issue dropping back to a stiff 5f here and again, provided he gets a sound draw, I’ll certainly be keeping him onside post-declarations. He is a likely shortener on the day given he’s been sent off fav on all four starts to date.
Are there any angles you have for punting at Ascot?
Patience at all these big festivals is one of the most useful traits to have. It is difficult enough to pick winners without the headache of an unreliable going description, draw, any track biases that may be prevalent. Obviously, before racing on the first day you are not going to truly know so I would keep stakes to a minimum without accurate readings of the aforementioned areas. You will also find that prices are unlikely to contract from the antepost stage to final declarations, unless a race cuts up significantly. You are also likely to get an extra place or two on your side, which is a massive help in races as competitive as these are.
The only angle I would use continuously throughout the week is ruling out those drawn very low in the middle-distance handicaps. All it takes is a below average break from the stalls and it is very difficult for jockeys to find the splits they need once push comes to shove. You would much prefer a wide draw in those races and I would bet on that standing the test of time once again this year.
Which horse is the firm’s biggest ante-post liability?
Vandeek (Commonwealth Cup) remains a poor result despite the majority of what we have laid coming prior to his reappearance at Haydock. He is around 4/1 and you could see that shortening with him being such a standout 2-year-old last season.
A couple from left field that would be fair losers for us are Francisco’s Piece in the Coventry Stakes, which has halved in price in the last few days into 8/1 and Caius Chorister in the Ascot Gold Cup. She was available at 50s and 66s prior to a couple of excellent efforts this term.
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