What are the key arguments about the economic study of Dublin’s traffic plan?

An economic study commissioned by Dublin city centre retailers, which estimates a loss of €141 million in consumer spending by 2028 due to the proposed restrictions on traffic, is now central to the debate on whether the proposals should go ahead.

The study was written for the Dublin City Centre Traders Alliance by Dr Pat McCloughan of PMCA Economic Consulting and estimates that a total of 1,800 jobs could be lost should the changes go ahead.

So what are the key points of debate that it raises?

The study is based on estimates of what will happen if Dublin City Council reaches its targets for getting people out of cars and on to other forms of transport. It also draws on a survey by Behaviour & Attitudes, the market research company, of Dublin shoppers from 2022, which looks at the spending patterns in the shops of people who travel on different forms of transport into the city centre.

The report makes a series of assumptions about what proportion of people travelling into the city centre are doing so to shop – and how this might change up to 2028 under the council’s plans. Given that the 2022 survey shows that those travelling by public transport, by foot or by bike spend less than motorists, the resulting sums show that retail spending by 2028, when the traffic plan would be fully in place, would be €141 million lower.

Some of the assumptions have come in for questioning. Trinity College Dublin economist Dr Barra Roantree, in a piece written for TheJournal.ie, says an assumption coming from the 2022 survey of shoppers that 65 per cent of all traffic crossing the canals during the peak morning hours is doing so for the purpose of shopping was not a reliable way of measuring the overall reason for journeys. He thus criticises its overall assumptions in terms of its impact on traffic to the city centre and the resulting spending trends.

The report’s author, McCloughan, told The Irish Times he stands by its methodology and it makes sense to conclude that people travelling by car will, on average, spend more in the shops. He said a key point of the report was that the council’s existing targets to move people out of cars to public transport and walking were already being met, without the need to resort to the restrictions even if cycling was below the target set in a plan for Dublin city centre last year.

What is not in the report has also opened it to some criticism. It takes no account of the benefits of reducing congestion and air pollution, estimated to have a significant wider economic and social cost, or of the likelihood that lower spending in the city centre is likely to lead to more spending elsewhere.

Prof Brian Caulfield of Trinity College Dublin said in an interview on RTÉ’s Morning Ireland that congestion cost the Dublin economy €360 million last year, which relates to issues such as the impact on public transport, notably on Dublin’s quays.

McCloughan responds that the study was an economic impact assessment and not a full cost-benefit analysis under the Government’s Public Spending Code which, he says, the council itself should have commissioned.

The question for the management of Dublin City Council now is how to treat the concerns of retailers and balance them against other issues. A lot is at stake.