What is a successful season for Northwestern football?

The first college football game that I remember watching was LSU-Alabama in November of 2011. It was the ‘Game of the Century,’ as dubbed by a few overeager sportswriters — the undefeated No. 1 ranked Tigers on the road against the undefeated No. 2 ranked Crimson Tide — and we treated it as such, complete with a spread of purple and yellow M&M’s. That’s what you remember when you’re six.

I also remember Eric Reid (or “number one,” as I knew him in 2011) intercepting A.J. McCarron on the one-yard-line in the fourth quarter, and Michael Ford breaking off a 15-yard run on the second play of overtime to ice the game. I had no real connection to LSU — my Lafayette alum dad (that’s the Lafayette in Pennsylvania) indoctrinated me into the ways of the Bayou after witnessing the Les Miles Tigers take down Tim Tebow’s Gators in 2007 — but how could you not be a fan.

The ‘Game of a the Century’ ended as a 9-6 LSU win in overtime, a true Big Ten West mud-fest that would be unrecognizable today in the modern SEC. It was a beautiful introduction to the beautiful game. College football was winning, and yellow and purple M&M’s.

As I was preparing to leave for my freshman year at Northwestern last summer, my dad took great joying in saying that I might not see a single Wildcat victory in all my four years in Evanston. It was his paternal instincts protecting me from the cold world outside our sheltered life of LSU Tiger joy, and he wasn’t necessarily wrong in his pessimism. Even the most starry-eyed of Inside NU writers had the ‘Cats sitting at a balmy 4-8 after the disaster that was the summer of 2023. 48 straight Northwestern losses was inside the realm of possibility.

Success in the post-hazing scandal era Northwestern football is more abstract than for the LSU’s of the world. It is defined more in words like ‘progress’ and ‘pride’ — or as Inside NU’s Brendan Preisman put it in August of last year, “normalcy” — than in-conference championships and the College Football Playoff. Yet what David Braun’s crew gave us last season was a chance to imagine a future where the standards are a little higher. The bottom of the barrel, 0-48 Northwestern Wildcats trounced Wisconsin at Camp Randall and took down Utah in Las Vegas on their way to a shock eight-win season. I’d build the statue tomorrow.

Success for the 2024 Northwestern Wildcats is a bowl game. That’s the standard that the 2023 ‘Cats set, and that’s the expectation that David Braun has earned. Oddsmakers have Northwestern’s win total at 4.5 as of publishing, a fair, if pessimistic outlook given the difficulty of the 2024 schedule, but I do think this year’s group is capable of a return to the postseason.

I’m going to pencil in losses against Ohio State and Michigan in November — the bar is higher, but it’s not that high even with a weaker Michigan team — leaving the ‘Cats to find six wins in the remaining 10 games.

And the wins are there in the rest of the schedule. Northwestern can and should compete in each non-Buckeye or Wolverine matchup, including against Washington, Wisconsin and Iowa. Washington is not nearly the same team that played for a national championship last season having lost its coach, quarterback and all but two starters from the Michigan game. A victory in Seattle will be a tall task, but not an impossible one.

It remains to be seen how effective the Lakefront will prove to be as a home field advantage, but I do like the unorthodox environment of the expanded Martin Stadium and some October Lake Michigan winds to cause problems. I see Northwestern keeping it close against Wisconsin and warm weather merchant Tyler van Dyke (I mean, the guy is from Connecticut, but let’s hope four years in the ACC have taken the New England out of the 23-year-old).

Away at Iowa facing Brendan Sullivan? I have faith that the ‘Cats will put up a fight against their former QB2. There’s at least one win to be found in these three games.

That leaves Miami (Ohio), Duke, Eastern Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Purdue and Illinois. Northwestern seems to only struggle against FCS programs from the south of Illinois, so Eastern Illinois should be no problem (knock on wood). These things rarely work out so simply, but this Northwestern team is absolutely talented enough to win games against the bottom half of the Big Ten, and the ‘Cats have earned the pressure of that expectation.

On top of the six wins, there are a handful of boxes that Northwestern needs to check to carry on the positive momentum from 2023, and it all starts with Zach Lujan’s offense. The former South Dakota State offensive coordinator replaces the much maligned Mike Bajakian and the head of the Wildcat unit, and he is the most high profile of Braun’s new hires, which include tight end coach Paul Creighton from Washington and offensive line coach Billy O’Doyle from San Diego State.

The success of the Lujan system, one that historically been characterized by a strong run game led by a mobile quarterback — enter Mike Wright — will be a barometer for Braun’s ability to build a staff in his first year as a head coach. Braun and his staff have already shown a feel for the recruiting trail — especially Creighton, who is stacking a talented class of 2025 tight ends for the ‘Cats — and a solid year on offense, especially on the ground, will do good work to instill confidence in Braun as the long term answer in Evanston.

I also would like to see some improvement in the passing game from Mike Wright. The senior signal caller has made a living with his legs throughout his four years of college football, but his arm has been less than stellar. Accuracy is his biggest problem — Wright’s career completion percentage hovers around 55%. Much of the reason that Lujan was hired was for his work with South Dakota State quarterback Mark Gronowski, the Walter Camp award winner (equivalent to the Heisman of the FCS) who excelled under Lujan’s tutelage. Gronowski had similar accuracy struggles to Wright in his freshman year, sitting at a meager 57% completion percentage, but he steadily improved that number up to 68% during the Jackrabbits’ title run in 2023. If Wright can add a solid five percentage points to his 57% number from last year, it will bode well not just for the ‘Cats offensively but for the future of quarterback development under Lujan.

Northwestern’s 2024 identity, however, profiles to come from the defensive side of the ball. All-Big Ten linebacker Xander Mueller returns as the centerpiece of Braun’s signature unit, but questions abound throughout the rest of the 11, especially in the secondary, where the losses of Garnett Hollis Jr. and Roy Heard to the transfer portal leave behind an unproven core group. Braun coached the safeties on top of his defensive coordinator duties in his four years at South Dakota State, and his success as a coordinator in the FCS was characterized by the efficacy of his passing defense. Braun has worked with many of the players who will be tasked with replacing the production of Hollis Jr. and Heard throughout their whole Northwestern careers, including projected cornerback starters Theran Johnson and Ore Adeyi and projected starter at safety Devin Turner. The success of the young secondary unit will serve as microcosm for Braun’s ability to develop talent.

Win six games, run the ball and defend the pass. After a season of unexpected normalcy, Northwestern has earned the right for ‘success’ to be simple.