What is the bar for a successful Gophers football season in 2024?

We’re inching closer to Gophers football kicking off their 2024 campaign Aug. 29 vs. North Carolina. What has to happen for the season to be a success for P.J. Fleck and his staff?

Minnesota finished last season with a 6-7 record and a Quick Lane Bowl victory over Bowling Green. It was an up-and-down season, with late-game losses to Northwestern and Illinois, but a win over rival Iowa to reclaim the Floyd of Rosedale rivalry trophy for the first time since 2014.

The 2024-25 college football season will look a lot different. The Big Ten now has 18 schools, divisions no longer exist and the College Football Playoff will have 12 participating teams. What are realistic expectations for the Gophers this season?

The Gophers have played in a bowl game each of the last three seasons, and five straight seasons if you exclude the 2020 COVID season. It is one of the best stretches in the modern era of the program. Most betting markets have their preseason win total at 4.5, so I think a six-win season in 2024 should be viewed as a success in Dinkytown. Picking up that many wins would mean they outperformed expectations, though it would still leave much to be desired.

New Hampshire transfer QB Max Brosmer was brought in to improve the Gophers’ passing attack in 2024. Ever since their 11-2 season in 2019, they’ve been chasing that same passing game magic they had with Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman at wide receiver. Tanner Morgan never got close to hsi 2019 form and Athan Kaliakmanis was never able to find his footing at Minnesota.

In 2023, the Gophers were 123rd in passing yards per game (143.4), but Brosmer led the entire FCS in passing yards. He will have an upgraded WR group to throw to, so it is up to the scheme to get this unit on track because they have the talent to be much better. If they can get into the top half of the country in passing yards per game, this team should be competitive almost every week.

Given how much harder it is for teams like the Gophers to qualify for the Big Ten Championship Game without divisons, rivalry games take on that much more importance. The Iowa and Wisconsin games are likely the two biggest on Minnesota’s calendar every season.

Fleck was able to break the Gophers’ 10-year losing streak vs. Iowa in 2023 and he has a 3-4 record against Wisconsin. If they’re able to beat at least one of the Hawkeyes or Badgers in 2024, that will give them something to hang their hat if they don’t exceed expectations on a macro level.