Who is to blame for USC’s recruiting setbacks? Will Trojans shift their strategy in-state?

LOS ANGELES — The past few weeks have been filled with several recruiting setbacks for USC. That’s created plenty of frustration among the Trojans’ fanbase. And a lot of questions.

Let’s get to them …

(Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.) 

Hey Antonio, I think you probably had an idea what this mailbag would look like. My question revolves around the terrible recruiting (by USC’s standards) that we continue to see in Year 3 of Lincoln Riley, even with the new defensive staff.

I have to admit that I am a Lincoln Riley skeptic and have been from the beginning, so when we continue to see this weak recruiting, my inclination is to put the blame squarely at his feet. In my mind, this is all a result of his terrible track record on defense and development dating back to Oklahoma, his stubbornness in retaining Alex Grinch, his awful strategy of treating the local kids like they are his second option and him being a mediocre recruiter at anything but QBs.

There has been a lot of noise lately coming from some USC fans wanting to blame this terrible last month on everything to do with name, image and likeness, the three collectives not seeing eye to eye, not fulfilling promises etc. Some are going so far as to blame GM Dave Emerick (who Riley hired) and AD Jen Cohen. This all strikes me as ridiculous and reeks of copium and people not wanting to admit that Riley may not be the guy people thought he was.

Where do you think most of the blame lies? Should I take it easy on Riley or do you think that most of the blame lies with him? — Erik W. 

USC’s NIL journey over the past few years has been clunky. I think everyone can admit or agree with that.

But Riley is paid in the ballpark of $10 million per year to build and run a program with the expectation it will compete at the highest level. So is he completely blameless? No.

In recent weeks I’ve seen fans vent their frustrations on social media or message boards about Emerick, the football program’s general manager, and Spencer Harris, House of Victory’s executive director, pinpointing them for USC’s struggles on the recruiting trail.

But nobody is dictating to Riley how the program’s NIL funds are utilized. Riley hired Emerick for the role he’s currently in. They’ve known each other since the Texas Tech days back in the early 2000s and Emerick is one of the people Riley trusts most within the program. Is Emerick a sounding board for Riley? Sure. But does he have final say on NIL deals? No.

To be honest, it might be time to re-evaluate what the recruiting ceiling is under Riley. Oklahoma was a well-oiled machine during his time there — USC is still trying to lift off — and he never signed a top-five class while coaching the Sooners, who he led to three consecutive College Football Playoff appearances.

One could easily say: “Well, yeah, but he didn’t have the Southern California talent hotbed in Oklahoma.” But that talent hotbed is negated because this staff doesn’t emphasize the region as much as the Trojans’ previous coaching staffs. The 2023 season didn’t help either; USC still has a lot to prove on the field.

USC’s NIL funding isn’t the same as Ohio State, Oregon, Texas or some others, and it could surely improve. But as I’ve stated several times, the Trojans aren’t poor.

There’s been talk about alignment and Riley not getting the things he was promised when he took the job. USC spent big to hire Riley, buy him and his staff out at Oklahoma, move to one of the premier conferences in the sport (the Big Ten), build new football facilities and re-locate its baseball program for two seasons in the process. USC also spent a pretty penny to hire defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, defensive line coach Eric Henderson (who had a great job with the Rams) and the rest of the defensive staff.

Serious resources have been devoted to the program during Riley’s tenure. Also, alignment has nothing to do with hiring or retaining Grinch as defensive coordinator, the bad special teams play of the past two seasons, missed evaluations in the transfer portal or the overall regression of the team last season.

USC is not operating at its peak NIL-wise. It can and needs to be better. But the same goes for Riley and everyone else in the program.

When will USC focus more on California and West Coast recruits and tone it down on national recruiting where everybody and their brother are offering highly valued players? — Joe D. 

I’m not quite sure there will be a shift in strategy. Riley has stated that he wants to take a national approach to recruiting, and we’ve seen several programs over the past few years sort of de-emphasize local recruiting.

It’s just going to be difficult to win those high-profile, out-of-state recruiting battles unless the program becomes more aggressive with NIL on the high school recruiting front. Especially when a lot of the programs the Trojans are competing against are established powers like Georgia and Ohio State.

USC has tried with some local recruits — it hasn’t completely alienated its backyard — but the losses have mounted dating back to Matayo Uiagalelei, who signed with Oregon in Riley’s first full cycle, all the way to Noah Mikhail, a 2025 recruit who committed to Texas A&M a few weeks ago.

I believe there are several reasons for the disconnect. USC simply isn’t as high on some of the prospects in the region as the recruiting sites are. It doesn’t want to get involved in NIL-driven recruitments. Sometimes the staff just gets beat in a recruiting battle. And sometimes kids just want to leave the footprint.

The Trojans hold commitments from just three of California’s 33 blue-chip prospects in the current recruiting cycle.

USC needs to win games and display improvement on the field. I know Miami and Texas A&M haven’t won a ton of games recently either, but those schools are pretty aggressive NIL-wise. If USC isn’t aggressive NIL-wise and isn’t winning, it’s going to have a tough time getting players locally or nationally.

The Trojans have to give these recruits a reason to want to play at USC.

USC’s 2025 recruiting class ranks eighth in the Big Ten and 25th nationally. (Jason Parkhurst / USA Today)

Why did USC have no problem in the old days getting great defensive players like Ronnie Lott, Junior Seau and Troy Polamalu but nowadays we’re begging for three stars from Lodi and Winnemuka? — Gary P.

When was the last time USC produced an objectively great defense? 2008? That was almost 20 years ago. There’s a troubling track record of bad defense since then.

On paper, this is shaping up to be USC’s best defensive coaching staff since the Pete Carroll days. So we’ll see if they can change the trajectory.

It seems to me recruiting today boils down to three things:

1. Coaches: How well do they recruit and work it?
2. Success record: Of course, the kids wanna play for a winner and someone who will develop their talents.
3. NIL

How would you rate USC’s recruiting efforts on these three levels? In comparison to Oregon — which is smoking USC right now — are the Ducks doing all three better or just NIL?

And for my follow-up question (thanks for asking): How well do you think Lincoln Riley and the assistant coaches (looking at you D’Anton Lynn) can coach up (either through strategy or development) inferior talent? Clearly, we don’t have the players that an Ohio State, Alabama or Michigan (OK, too many to type) do, but can our coaches make up the difference? Or is it going to be a long year? I’d like to know before I order Big Ten football games. — Rob H.

Thanks for the questions, Rob.

I think Oregon has the edge in those categories. When you talk about coaches, I think the Ducks’ staff is filled with elite recruiters. I know USC fans will likely say anyone can recruit with Oregon’s NIL setup. But remember, they almost hired Justin Wilcox. Do you honestly believe the Ducks would be recruiting at the same rate with Wilcox instead of Dan Lanning right now?

So, the staff deserves some credit. USC’s defensive staff is still an unknown commodity in terms of recruiting for several reasons. They made a big initial splash but suffered serious setbacks last month, so we’ll see how they respond.

USC does have the national championships, so that’s the trump card, but Oregon has been the better program for the majority of the time since Carroll left Los Angeles.

And the Ducks have what is likely the best NIL setup in the country. They have a lot going in their favor, as the recruiting rankings show.

We’ll learn about how these new defensive coaches build up the talent level this year. To be fair, I think USC has adequate talent in the secondary. The Trojans are talented at safety and have good potential at corner.

I think defensive ends coach Shaun Nua did a good job his first season without much talent and in a bad scheme. So we’ll see what Henderson and linebackers coach Matt Entz can do.

Bear Alexander is a good talent on the interior of the defensive line but everyone else is a question mark. USC’s linebacker play has been subpar for a while. The group added first-team All-Pac-12 linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold from Oregon State, which should be a boost, but can the other cast members improve from last year? The Trojans will need that.

I think USC’s fundamentals will improve defensively, but it’s hard for me to quantify how much of a difference that’ll make in terms of wins and losses or defensive rankings.

GO DEEPER

Who are X-factors for every Big Ten team? Evan Stewart, Aidan Chiles, C.J. Hicks lead list

When Riley was hired, a lot of fans (myself included), thought he was the kind of coach that could return USC to a national power. Two seasons and an offseason later, the only thing that the program does at an elite level is QB development/recruitment. That said, this feels like a make-or-break year.

In my mind, if Riley and USC are ever going to meet those initial expectations, they need to either rebound with a top-10 recruiting class in 2025 or pull off 10 wins in their first Big Ten season. Which (unlikely) outcome do you think is more likely and what odds do you give them in each scenario?

Thanks for all of your great work! — Mathieu L.

I agree that those seem unlikely, but I’d bet on a 10-win season before a top-10 recruiting class. So many of the top blue-chip recruits have already picked a home and it would be extremely difficult to flip enough of them to rise to the top 10 of the national recruiting rankings.

The best-case scenario for the season is Miller Moss thrives in the offense, taking the pressure off the offensive line while the young receivers take a massive leap. Then, the defense fixes its fundamental issues, is more technically sound and sidesteps the depth problems. Michigan and LSU are tough road trips, but Penn State, Wisconsin and Notre Dame all come to the Coliseum, which bodes well for USC.

Again, I don’t believe a 10-win season is likely but I have an easier time envisioning that than a top-10 recruiting class.

(Top photo: Jason Parkhurst / USA Today)