Who should the Celtics have guard Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving in NBA Finals? Here’s what the numbers say

Jrue Holiday

Doncic’s stats with Holiday as primary defender: 12 points on 5 of 8 shooting from the field (1 of 1 shooting from 3-point range) with six assists and two turnovers on 31.5 partial possessions over 6:07. Mavericks scored 36 points with Holiday as primary defender (114.3 offensive rating). Holiday committed two shooting fouls while guarding Doncic.

Irving’s stats with Holiday as primary defender: 10 points on 4 of 9 shooting from the field (2 of 2 shooting from 3-point range) with two assists to zero turnovers on 45 partial possessions over 8:37. Mavericks scored 51 points with Holiday as primary defender (113.3 offensive rating). Holiday didn’t commit a shooting foul while guarding Irving.

Holiday’s regular-season defensive stats: 0.9 steals and 0.8 blocks per game. Opponents shot 45.1 percent from the field and 36.6 percent from deep with Holiday as the closest defender.

Holiday’s postseason defensive stats: 1.3 steals and 0.6 blocks per game. Opponents have shot 42.4 percent from the field and 30.7 from deep with Holiday as the closest defender.

Derrick White

Doncic’s stats with White as primary defender: 22 points on 9 of 11 shooting from the field (3 of 5 shooting from 3-point range) with three assists to zero turnovers on 14.7 partial possessions over 2:27. Mavericks scored 28 points with White as primary defender (190.5 offensive rating). White committed a shooting foul while defending Doncic.

Irving’s stats with White as primary defender: 10 points on 5 of 11 shooting from the field (0 for 3 shooting from 3-point range) with zero assists to two turnovers on 41.5 partial possessions over 7:47. Mavericks scored 48 points with White as primary defender (115.7 offensive rating). White didn’t commit a shooting foul and recorded a block while defending Irving.

White’s regular-season defensive stats: 1.2 blocks, 1 steal per game. Opponents shot 45.3 percent from the field and 33.6 percent from deep with White as the closest defender.

White’s postseason defensive stats: 1.3 blocks, 0.9 steals per game. Opponents have shot 47.3 percent from the field and 33.9 percent from deep with White as the closest defender.

Jaylen Brown

Doncic’s stats with Brown as primary defender: 11 points on 4 of 10 shooting from the field (0 for 1 shooting from 3-point range) with six assists to zero turnovers on 57.2 partial possessions over 11:15. Mavericks scored 47 points with Brown as primary defender (82.2 offensive rating). Brown committed two shooting fouls and recorded a block while defending Doncic.

Irving’s stats with Brown as primary defender: Four points on 2 of 4 shooting from the field (0 of 2 shooting from 3-point range) with three assists to zero turnovers on 16.4 partial possessions over 2:54. Mavericks scored 31 points with Brown as primary defender (189 offensive rating). Brown didn’t commit a shooting file while defending Irving.

Brown’s regular-season defensive stats: 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks per game. Opponents shot 44.8 percent from the field and 34.5 percent from deep with Brown as the closest defender.

Brown’s postseason defensive stats: 1.1 steals and 0.6 blocks per game. Opponents have shot 49 percent from the field and 33.8 percent from deep with Brown as the closest defender.

Jayson Tatum

Doncic’s stats with Tatum as primary defender: Two points on 1 of 4 shooting from the field (didn’t attempt a 3-pointer) with three assists to zero turnovers on 12.4 partial possessions over 2:12. Mavericks scored 12 points with Tatum as primary defender (96.8 offensive rating). Tatum didn’t commit a shooting foul when defending Doncic.

Irving’s stats with Tatum as primary defender: Two points on 1 of 6 shooting from the field (0 for 2 from 3-point range) with one assist to zero turnovers on 18.1 partial possessions over 2:50. Mavericks scored 18 points with Tatum as primary defender (99.4 offensive rating). Tatum didn’t commit a shooting foul when defending Irving.

Tatum’s regular-season defensive stats: 1 steal, 0.6 blocks per game. Opponents shot 46.7 percent from the field and 36.7 percent from deep with Tatum as the closest defender.

Tatum’s postseason defensive stats: 1.1 steals, 0.7 blocks per game. Opponents have shot 51 percent from the field and 42.3 percent from deep with Tatum as the closest defender.

How the Celtics’ bigs have done against Doncic and Irving.

In this day and age, we all know that offenses like to hunt certain matchups. That’s been apparent for the Celtics’ defense so far this postseason, with opponents often seeking to put Al Horford in isolation.

So, let’s take a brief look at how Horford and Kristaps Porzingis have done against Doncic and Irving this postseason.

Doncic’s stats with Horford as primary defender: Eight points on 3 of 10 shooting (0 of 5 from 3-point range) with three assists and a turnover. Horford committed a shooting foul while defending Doncic.

Irving’s stats with Horford as primary defender: Six points on 2 of 3 shooting (2 of 2 from 3-point range) with zero assists and zero turnovers. Horford didn’t commit a shooting foul while defending Irving.

Doncic’s stats with Porzingis as primary defender: Five points on 2 of 5 shooting (1 of 2 from 3-point range) with one assist to zero turnovers. Porzingis didn’t commit a shooting foul while guarding Doncic.

Irving’s stats with Porzingis as primary defender: Six points on 3 of 6 shooting (0 of 1 from 3-point range) with zero assists and zero turnovers. Porzingis didn’t commit a shooting foul while defending Irving.

Takeaways

First, it should be noted that these are small sample sizes, so they aren’t an end-all, be all.

However, the most glaring thing to note is the lack of success White had in defending Doncic over the two games this season. It could just be as simple as Doncic having a hot hand, but Brown was notably the strongest defender on the Mavericks’ star this season on the Celtics.

There are a couple of things beyond the Celtics’ matchups with the Mavericks that Brown might be the best option for them to throw on Doncic. Clippers guard Terance Mann and Thunder guard/forward Jalen Williams had the most success slowing down Doncic offensively of defenders to match up with the Mavericks star for at least 10 minutes so far this postseason.

Doncic scored 15 points on 15 of 39 shooting and missed all 12 of his 3-pointers when Mann was on him, dishing out just seven assists to three turnovers. Doncic scored nine points on 4 of 13 shooting (1 of 5 from deep) with 10 assists to six turnovers when Williams guarded him.

Brown has a similar frame as Mann and Williams, standing an inch taller than them at 6-foot-6.

Brown’s also taken on some of the Celtics’ tougher assignments along the perimeter so far this postseason. Pascal Siakam shot 7 of 14 from the field when Brown was on him in the Eastern Conference finals, shooting just 1 of 4 from deep with one assist to four turnovers, for instance.

Meanwhile, Irving didn’t give the Celtics as many fits as Doncic did this season. Holiday might be their best option though to slow down the Mavericks point guard, having success against other points guards defensively this postseason. Tyler Herro scored 23 points on 8 of 21 shooting when Holiday was on him in the opening round while Darius Garland scored 15 points on 6 of 19 shooting with the Celtics All-Defensive guard on him in Round 2.

It’s pretty clear though that Doncic is going to be able to score and Irving will be tough to stop, regardless of who’s guarding them. But can the Celtics slow them down just enough? They certainly have the horsepower to do it.

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