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Wimbledon DFS Tennis First Look: Salaries, Odds, Projections, Ownership, Predictions, and Picks for Monday (July 1)

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Wimbledon DFS Tennis First Look: Salaries, Odds, Projections, Ownership, Predictions, and Picks for Monday (July 1)

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Wimbledon has arrived! Since 1877, the All England Club in London has been home to one of the world’s most prestigious sporting events. To celebrate, DraftKings is hosting some of its largest Tennis DFS tournaments of the season. In this article, we delve into the world of tennis betting and DFS on platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel. Whether you’re seeking tennis betting odds, DFS tennis projections, or insights into today’s lineup, our analysis is here to guide you. Join us as we review DFS tennis research and explore the landscape for the upcoming Wimbledon slate.

Today’s Tennis DFS Matchups and Odds for Wimbledon

Player Opponent Odds Opp Odds Event Surface Elo% Opp Elo%
Jannik Sinner Yannick Hanfmann -6000 2500 ATP – Wimbledon Grass 100.00% 77.68%
Madison Keys Martina Trevisan -3500 1700 WTA – Wimbledon Grass 96.23% 77.41%
Coco Gauff Caroline Dolehide -2000 1200 WTA – Wimbledon Grass 99.37% 73.43%
Tommy Paul Pedro Martinez -1400 850 ATP – Wimbledon Grass 96.78% 81.76%
Aryna Sabalenka Emina Bektas -2000 1100 WTA – Wimbledon Grass 99.58% 64.85%
Emma Navarro Qiang Wang -1400 900 WTA – Wimbledon Grass 97.28% 79.08%
Lorenzo Sonego Mariano Navone -1400 800 ATP – Wimbledon Grass 85.19% 93.99%
Miomir Kecmanovic Sumit Nagal -1000 650 ATP – Wimbledon Grass 84.76% 74.46%
Tallon Griekspoor Pablo Carreno Busta -750 500 ATP – Wimbledon Grass 95.92% 30.00%
Mirra Andreeva Brenda Fruhvirtova -650 450 WTA – Wimbledon Grass 97.49% 83.26%
Qinwen Zheng Lulu Sun -550 400 WTA – Wimbledon Grass 98.74% 75.94%
Linda Noskova Sara Errani -390 300 WTA – Wimbledon Grass 96.03% 74.27%
Naomi Osaka Diane Parry -400 310 WTA – Wimbledon Grass 88.28% 85.56%
Bianca Andreescu Jaqueline Adina Cristian -360 275 WTA – Wimbledon Grass 91.21% 30.00%
Roberto Bautista Agut Maximilian Marterer -370 285 ATP – Wimbledon Grass 90.13% 70.82%
Victoria Azarenka Sloane Stephens -320 255 WTA – Wimbledon Grass 96.86% 95.19%
Donna Vekic Xiyu Wang -295 230 WTA – Wimbledon Grass 91.00% 83.89%
Ben Shelton Mattia Bellucci -295 230 ATP – Wimbledon Grass 97.00% 49.57%
Alexander Bublik Jakub Mensik -215 170 ATP – Wimbledon Grass 94.64% 95.71%
Botic Van de Zandschulp Liam Broady -170 135 ATP – Wimbledon Grass 84.55% 68.45%
Max Purcell Otto Virtanen -150 120 ATP – Wimbledon Grass 71.89% 77.04%
Aleksandar Vukic Sebastian Ofner -145 115 ATP – Wimbledon Grass 69.10% 79.40%
Yafan Wang Anna-Karolina Schmiedlova -155 125 WTA – Wimbledon Grass 80.13% 76.15%
Alison van Uytvanck Yuliia Starodubtseva -145 115 WTA – Wimbledon Grass 30.00% 66.32%
Emma Raducanu Ekaterina Alexandrova -130 105 WTA – Wimbledon Grass 93.31% 95.40%
Eva Lys Clara Burel -130 105 WTA – Wimbledon Grass 78.24% 86.19%
Diana Shnaider Karolina Pliskova -135 105 WTA – Wimbledon Grass 87.45% 93.72%
Yuriko Lily Miyazaki Tamara Korpatsch -145 110 WTA – Wimbledon Grass 58.79% 66.11%
Sorana Cirstea Sonay Kartal -125 100 WTA – Wimbledon Grass 93.93% 50.84%
Paula Badosa Karolina Muchova -115 -110 WTA – Wimbledon Grass 94.35% 95.82%

Odds courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook as of publication time.

Top DFS Projections for Wimbledon

Player fpts matches sets games aces df
Jannik Sinner 75.94 0.90 2.82 20.44 10.88 2.15
Lorenzo Sonego 74.94 0.89 2.81 19.97 9.88 1.94
Tommy Paul 73.93 0.90 2.81 20.05 10.55 2.43
Miomir Kecmanovic 72.88 0.87 2.78 19.67 8.18 2.13
Emma Navarro 69.08 0.90 1.69 12.47 1.83 1.65
Madison Keys 68.75 0.90 1.69 11.49 4.73 1.87
Tallon Griekspoor 68.37 0.84 2.73 18.87 15.48 2.89
Coco Gauff 67.98 0.90 1.69 12.31 5.12 3.10
Aryna Sabalenka 67.25 0.90 1.69 12.08 7.09 3.16
Mirra Andreeva 65.35 0.83 1.63 12.24 3.53 1.98

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Top DFS ownership for Wimbledon

Player own%
Lorenzo Sonego 28.74%
Ben Shelton 25.93%
Jannik Sinner 23.87%
Tommy Paul 21.60%
Sorana Cirstea 19.59%

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Top DFS Optimal Rates for Wimbledon

Player Opto%
Coco Gauff 17.60%
Aryna Sabalenka 17.32%
Emma Navarro 16.58%
Qinwen Zheng 16.54%
Lorenzo Sonego 15.30%

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Tennis DFS Tournament Picks, Best Bets, and Pick ‘Em Plays for Wimbledon

DFS Play #1 – Ben Shelton: $8,900

We’re starting with an American who has been inconsistent on grass throughout his career. He’s only played 9 matches on grass in his career and has only won 3 of them. While not ideal, there’s a big talent gap between him and Mattia Bellucci. For starters, Shelton is ranked 14th in the world, while Bellucci is ranked 150th. Shelton earned an automatic spot into Wimbledon, while Bellucci had to win 3 qualifier matches to get into the event. I prefer to use Elo ratings over world rankings when it comes to assessing talent, and Shelton is well ahead of Bellucci in overall Elo, yearly Elo, and grass Elo. Shelton is also a good play for DFS, as he boasts an 11.2% ace rate on his serve.

DFS Play #2 – Alexander Bublik: $8,800

Bublik is only 2-3 on grass this year, which has been a disappointment. However, he’s run into some quality opponents in Christopher Eubanks (made a run at Wimbledon last year), Aleksandar Vukic, and Lorenzo Musetti. I’m not overly concerned, as he was 9-2 on grass last year. Overall, it’s been a solid year for Bublik, who captured an ATP title at the Open Sud de France. Much like Shelton, Bublik is well ahead of his opponent (Jakub Mensik) in all of the Elo ratings — overall, yearly, and surface type. He’s a sizable favorite, he’s affordable, and he has a 4.3% difference between his ace rate and double fault rate in 2024.

Bet #1 – Mariano Navone +7.5 games (-110)

I had to double check my model a few times on this one because it has Navone and Lorenzo Sonego projected fairly close. The latter certainly has the edge when it comes to experience playing on grass, but he has not had a good year. He’s 14-21 overall and 4-6 on grass. He has dropped all the way down to 57th in the world rankings, while Navone is on an opposite trajectory. He’s already been to 4 ATP finals and picked up a title in Calgary. The concern here is that Navone is a clay specialist. He’s 0-2 on hard courts and 0-3 on grass courts over the last two years. Based on recent form, the +7.5 games against a struggling player screams value.

Bet #2 – Tallon Griekspoor Set 1 Winner (-330)

When projecting tennis, I like using a rating system and then comparing how each player rates against their opponents. Of the 64 matches on Monday (men’s and women’s), Griekspoor had the second biggest gap between his rating and his opponent’s rating. I don’t see any value in the -900 number on the full match, but I do like the -330 on the first set. Griekspoor is 27th in the world rankings, he rates out extremely well in all of the Elo ratings, and he’s 10-4 on grass over the last two years. His opponent (Pablo Carreno-Busta) hasn’t played much tennis recently. He’s only 3-9 this year and is 0-1 on grass over the last two years. I like Griekspoor to get off to a good start and win the first set.

Pick ‘Em – Casper Ruud more than 24.5 fantasy points

If you are playing on PrizePicks or any of the pick ‘em sites, it’s important to understand their scoring systems. For this particular pick, I am looking at PrizePicks, where you get points for games won, sets won, and aces. You lose points for games lost, sets lost, and double faults. While Alex Bolt has as much experience on grass this year (18-2) as nearly anyone in the tournament, he hasn’t been playing against the best competition. Ruud is one of the best players in the world (currently ranked 8th) and has plenty of experience in majors. He also has a 4.1% difference between his ace rate and double fault rate. I don’t expect him to have much trouble against Bolt.

Image Credit: Getty Images

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