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Worst to first? Ranking 8 NFL teams’ chances to jump to top of division in 2024

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Worst to first? Ranking 8 NFL teams’ chances to jump to top of division in 2024

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The NFL has a way of annually affording hope to its most downtrodden franchises.

In 2023, the Houston Texans became the league’s latest shining example of how quickly a turnaround can materialize, as a team that went 3-13-1 the previous year rose all the way to the top of the AFC South. Thanks to the Texans’ ascent, the NFL has now had at least one team complete a worst-to-first transformation within its division in 19 of the past 21 years (the league underwent realignment in 2002 to create eight sets of four).

Naturally, all of last season’s divisional cellar-dwellers will look to become the next team to keep the trend going. While some teams look to have the ingredients to make a run, others could have difficulty catching up with established contenders. With that in mind, we ranked all eight of the last-place finishers from 2023 based on the likelihood they can go from worst to first within their division.

1. Cincinnati Bengals

The case for: It doesn’t require a lot of faith to buy into a group that won 22 games from 2021-22 and reached the Super Bowl and AFC championship game during that span. Despite Joe Burrow’s injuries – a calf ailment contributed to a 1-3 start before the quarterback was lost for the season in November to a wrist issue – Cincinnati still forged ahead to a 9-8 mark, with their playoff hopes lingering until Week 17. Burrow’s recovery bears watching in training camp, but his trajectory is thus far reassuring. Signing Trent Brown and drafting Amarius Mims to address the hole at right tackle could position Burrow to enjoy the best protection of his career – though that’s not a very high bar. Meanwhile, a defense that was undone its league-worst allowance of explosive plays should be in better shape at safety thanks to the arrival of Geno Stone and return of Vonn Bell. It’s little wonder why the team didn’t budge on trade requests from two key starters in wide receiver Tee Higgins and defensive end Trey Hendrickson: This is a legitimate contender.

The case against: The AFC North was the only division to have four teams with winning records in 2023. It may be even more brutal this season. The Bengals’ offense could experience a few bumps with running backs Zack Moss and Chase Brown stepping in for mainstay Joe Mixon and a new No. 3 receiver needing to emerge following the departure of dependable slot Tyler Boyd. The pieces are in place for progress along the defensive line and in the secondary, but some recent unproven early draft picks will be counted on to become reliable contributors. 

The bottom line: Cincinnati completed the worst-to-first transition in 2021. The team won’t have nearly as far to go to repeat the feat this year. As the only group on this list that finished above .500 last season, the Bengals are a far more proven product than any of the other candidates. They might be behind the Ravens for the title of AFC North favorite, but it shouldn’t be by much.

2. Chicago Bears 

The case for: It’s understandable that Caleb Williams would spark a surge in optimism along in the Windy City. The No. 1 pick could end up as the kind of offensive catalyst behind center that the organization has never known. But the reason to believe in the Bears first became apparent well before the former USC quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner first looked destined to become the crown jewel of Ryan Poles’ trade back in the draft order last spring, as the general manager has done a superlative job of setting the table for this moment. Awaiting Williams are an imposing and well-balanced receiving corps (DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and fellow first-round pick Rome Odunze), solid offensive line and strong running game. A defense that ranked first against the run (86.4 yards per game) and tied for fifth in takeaways (28) could continue the ascent that helped Chicago claim four of its last six games.

The case against: Williams has so frequently been saddled with unreasonable expectations that some might have lost sight of the learning curve ahead. While coach Matt Eberflus and new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron no doubt will want to harness his signature playmaking ability, dialing back his never-say-die approach as a passer likely will be a necessity. And if Williams doesn’t approach the level of a C.J. Stroud or Andrew Luck in elevating the offense as a rookie, the Bears likely won’t have enough juice to push the Detroit Lions or Green Bay Packers. The defensive line remains a sizable worry, as Pro Bowler Montez Sweat is the lone legitimate pass-rushing threat, and the interior also looks spotty. 

The bottom line: Getting into the playoff mix seems like a solid goal. But the Bears still have a good deal of ground to make up to draw anywhere close to the Lions and Packers. A franchise that has won the NFC North title just once in the last 13 seasons likely needs another year before it makes a serious run.

3. Tennessee Titans

The case for: In an offseason that featured limited marquee moves, the Titans made several splashes. Their commitment to making a substantial shift was evident in January, when the team fired Mike Vrabel just two years after he helped the team secure the top seed in the AFC playoffs. In steps Brian Callahan to help bring along second-year quarterback Will Levis and reconfigure an offense that should be far more potent through the air in the post-Derrick Henry era. With Calvin Ridley coming aboard from the rival Jacksonville Jaguars and Tyler Boyd providing tremendous value as a May signing, a receiving corps that last year offered no reliable threats outside of DeAndre Hopkins now appears to be one of the league’s more formidable groups. The Titans also snagged cornerback L’Jarius Sneed in a trade with the Kansas City Chiefs after the two-time defending champions wouldn’t fork over the kind of extension to which Tennessee agreed (four years, $76.4 million). While the rest of the AFC South is promising, the division’s pecking order isn’t immutable, as was shown last year when the Texans hopped to the top.

The case against: This is a lot of change for any one team to endure. Between Callahan’s inexperience as both a coach and a playcaller as well as Levis’ volatile style, expect some turbulence along the way. Callahan’s father, Bill Callahan, could prove to be a major asset for a suspect offensive line, but there’s only so much that even the highly respected assistant coach can achieve right away with this crew. The defense could also be in for a regression from the middle of the pack given the steep dropoff from the stars (Sneed, defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons and edge rusher Harold Landry III). Even if the Titans click in the early going, staying relevant down the stretch could prove challenging for a franchise with poor overall depth. 

The bottom line: General manager Ran Carthon put the Titans’ retooling in motion last year, but the effort didn’t really take off until this offseason. Now, Tennessee at least has a clear direction after closing the book on Vrabel, Henry and Ryan Tannehill, among others. Levis could prove equal parts scintillating and frustrating when his big plays are offset by turnovers and errant passes, but there’s a good bit of upside here – even if tapping into it doesn’t vault Tennessee ahead of its divisional competition. 

4. Los Angeles Chargers

The case for: Jim Harbaugh last coached in an NFL game a decade ago, but he’s hardly a mystery. In making the jump back to the pros after winning a title at Michigan, Harbaugh can be counted on to employ an efficient attack, with offensive coordinator Greg Roman set to continue to break from league norms by emphasizing a run-heavy approach. Justin Herbert’s presence alone also confers a substantial advantage to the Bolts, as no other team on this list outside of the Bengals boasts someone behind center who can turn a game on its head. If the offensive line and pass rush hold up, Los Angeles might be competitive again in short time. 

The case against: Can Harbaugh and Roman really expect to regularly run roughshod over opponents every week in the current NFL landscape? Herbert’s unique abilities might be put to the test by a receiving corps that looks bound to struggle to create separation regularly unless rookie Ladd McConkey emerges. Given how top-heavy and veteran-reliant the roster is, there’s a wide range of possibilities here. And then there’s the little matter of the eight-time defending AFC West-champion Chiefs, who don’t look likely to fade as they pursue a title three-peat.

The bottom line: A favorable schedule and promising outlook at many of the most important spots could help Harbaugh make some early waves in the standings. The best-case scenario for the Chargers, however, might be leapfrogging the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders while sending a message to the Chiefs that they could be a pain to face for years to come. 

5. Arizona Cardinals

The case for: Jonathan Gannon and Co. managed to persevere through last season despite an inauspicious setup. Now more than a year fully removed from his ACL tear, Kyler Murray looks better positioned for success, chiefly due to the arrival of rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. The two-time unanimous All-American from Ohio State could be a transformative figure from the get-go for this unit. But with promising second-year wide receiver Michael Wilson and breakout tight end Trey McBride already in place alongside a hard-charging running game, Murray could repeatedly enjoy some very favorable looks. Don’t sleep on this group’s potential.

The case against: Gannon is paying the price for the previous regime’s years of poor defensive drafting. The pass rush looks like a hodgepodge in need of a consistent threat, while the secondary is ill-equipped to slow the imposing receiver tandems every other NFC West squad can throw at the Cardinals. Arizona didn’t come within one score of its divisional foes last season until falling by 1 point to the Seattle Seahawks in the regular-season finale.

The bottom line: The entertainment value should be on the rise in the desert given the brewing offensive alchemy. But the talent disparity between the Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers is far too great for this to even be a conversation.

6. Carolina Panthers

The case for: No one can accuse Carolina of inaction in response to Bryce Young’s disastrous debut season. With the quarterback bedeviled by inside pressure as a rookie – 35 of his league-worst 62 sacks came from the interior, according to ESPN – the Panthers ponied up big bucks to secure guards Robert Hunt (five years, $100 million) and Damien Lewis (four years, $53 million). Improved protection should be a key factor in helping unlock the deep passing game that never materialized in 2023, and the arrival of first-round receiver Xavier Legette – who has drawn perhaps hasty DK Metcalf comparisons after running a 4.39-second 40-yard dash at 6-1 and 221 pounds – should further aid those efforts. But the real change among the pass catchers might come from Diontae Johnson. After being offloaded in a March trade from the Pittsburgh Steelers, the former Pro Bowler looks poised for a bounce-back season as a high-volume intermediate target who can provide the easy separation that Young wasn’t afforded in his first year. With highly regarded defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero back to lead a unit that continues to punch above its weight class, maybe Carolina can surprise some people, especially in a division that lacks a true powerhouse. 

The case against: Don’t expect the overhauled offense to click by Week 1, as it’s a good bet the new elements might take time to coalesce. Even if the group does come together, though, is there enough to elevate this unit above a league-average attack at best? More firepower will be needed to compensate for a defense that likely will struggle to replace the pass-rushing prowess of two-time Pro Bowler Brian Burns and linebacker Frankie Luvu. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints might not be title contenders, but they’re all playoff threats who right now outclass the Panthers.

Bottom line: Carolina has only won more than seven games once since its 2015 Super Bowl trip. Still, the Panthers didn’t officially reach laughingstock status until last season’s unraveling. Sights should be set on establishing some base level of competence before anyone discusses the possibility of the first NFC South title in nearly a decade. 

7. Washington Commanders

The case for: Nowhere to go but up for a team that had the league’s worst point differential (-189) and ended the season on an eight-game skid. New coach Dan Quinn and general manager Adam Peters overhauled the roster with a host of free agents and nine draft picks, including six in the top 100. No. 2 overall selection Jayden Daniels could prove to be an electric threat early in his career, particularly as a runner after averaging 8.4 yards per carry last season at LSU. Quinn’s defensive acumen could also ignite a rapid turnaround for a defense that routinely suffered busted coverages, and his track record with generating takeaways should prove meaningful after Washington had the league’s worst turnover differential (-14) in 2023. 

The case against: Washington has major areas of concern at nearly every key position. Rolling with journeyman Cornelius Lucas at left tackle could be severely problematic for Daniels’ development. The edge rush might be inconsistent at best. And the secondary still looks shaky after giving up a league-high 388.8 yards per game last season. Meanwhile, offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury will need to prove more adaptable and varied in his approach than he was as a head coach in Arizona. Washington was one of two teams to go 0-6 within its division last year, and catching the Dallas Cowboys or Philadelphia Eagles seems outlandish. 

The bottom line: Getting a solid initial evaluation of Daniels and avoiding the kind of embarrassments that doomed Ron Rivera and Co. last season – such as the 45-10 Thanksgiving rout by the Cowboys, followed by a 45-15 romp by the Miami Dolphins – would constitute a major win for Quinn in Year 1. Commanders fans shouldn’t get their hopes up for much more than that. 

8. New England Patriots

The case for: A bit of fresh messaging might do some good in New England. Jerod Mayo has made it clear he’s prepared to go his own way after Bill Belichick’s 24-year reign, and the continuity on defense – from scheme to personnel – should give the first-year head coach at least a slight margin of error. For the Patriots to truly make an expedited return to the top of the standings, however, they’ll need rookie quarterback and No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye to wildly exceed expectations right away and provide the playmaking spark that has been absent from the offense for years.

The case against: The aforementioned Maye scenario seems far-fetched, so much so that the Patriots seem prepared to roll with Jacoby Brissett as a stopgap solution so as to not inhibit their prized pick’s development. Eliot Wolf tinkered with the offensive talent, but the receiving corps still lacks a true difference-maker. An offensive line that still looks highly suspect – particularly at left tackle – likely will make it all the more difficult to play Maye early, let alone permit him to embrace some of his more daredevil tactics. The AFC East outlook, however, might be what clinches New England’s spot at the bottom of these rankings. Even though the team managed to split its series with the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets last season, the gap between the Patriots and three potential playoff contenders is massive.

Bottom line: Desperate as Robert Kraft is to return to the playoffs after making it to the postseason just once in the last four years, Mayo and Wolf appear to be focused on laying the groundwork – establishing a proper culture, retaining core players and bringing along Maye as the much-needed long-term answer at quarterback – rather than rushing for quick fixes. That likely means the emphasis of the 2024 season should be on how the team progresses over the course of the year rather than how it fares in the standings. 

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