Yields slip after jobs report bolsters expectations for Fed cut

(Changes headline, updates market activity)

By David Randall

NEW YORK, July 5 (Reuters) – Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slid on Friday following closely-watched jobs data that appeared to show the U.S. labor market weakening, strengthening market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates in September.

Non-farm payrolls grew by 206,000 jobs in June, slightly higher than the 190,000 new jobs estimated by economists polled by Reuters. Estimated job growth for May, meanwhile, was revised down to 218,000 new jobs from 272,000, while April’s job growth was revised down to 108,000 new jobs from a previous 165,000.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, slightly higher than the estimated 4.0%.

The labor market has been a key focus for the Federal Reserve in its debate over when to begin cutting interest rates from nearly two-decade highs. The central bank has cited the resiliency of the jobs market as a potential catalyst for a possible resurgence in inflation.

“This was not a terrible report but with the large revisions it shows there are cracks and weaknesses under the surface,” said David Wagner, a portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors. “This keeps the (Fed’s) September meeting a live meeting for a rate cut.”

Futures markets are now pricing in a roughly 73% chance for a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s meeting that concludes September 18th, up from a 57.9% chance seen a week ago, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Overall, markets are pricing in a cumulative 50 basis points in interest rate cuts by the end of the year.

“The downward revisions to the previous two months is consistent with an economic slowdown,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial. “We should expect more rhetoric out of the Fed about labor market conditions and the importance of keeping policy appropriate for their dual mandate.”

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell 7.1 basis points to 4.276%, leaving it down approximately 20 basis points for the week and near its lowest levels since late June.

The yield on the 30-year bond fell 4.9 basis points to 4.471%.

The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 8.1 basis points to 4.612%.

A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a negative 33.8 basis points. (Reporting by David Randall; Editing by Andrew Heavens, Chizu Nomiyama and David Evans)